Gold price forecast 2024

We are approaching the fourth quarter of 2023. For this reason, many investors are already looking ahead to 2024 and wondering what the gold price will do next year. While the gold price has been less volatile than in 2022, 2023 still saw some strong gains. The precious metal even tested its all-time high in May due to the banking crisis.
The cost of living in 2022 was on average 10% higher than in 2021, marking the highest inflation since 1975. The struggles of banks and businesses reflect the cost-of-living challenges faced by many around the world, as high inflation and rising interest rates continue to dominate the current economic landscape.
 

Possible goldprice 2024

The gold price in 2024 will largely be driven by the same factors as in 2023. Inflation, interest rates, the strength of the dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties will remain key factors for investors to consider.
 

American interest rates

In June, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to pause its interest rate hikes after raising them ten consecutive times. However, this pause proved to be short-lived, as the interest rate was increased by a quarter percentage point in July, reaching a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent. This marks the highest interest rate level since 2001.
 
It is still unclear whether we are entering a prolonged holding period for interest rates or if the Fed will start lowering them again. This will depend on how strongly the economy reacts to the current high rates. If interest rates need to rise higher than expected, this could create headwinds for the gold price. If rates peak but remain at a high level for most of 2024, the current gold price is likely to be maintained. However, if the Fed is forced to cut rates, this would have a negative effect on the dollar and push the gold price higher.
 

Recession

Some market forecasts predict a mild recession in the United States and the United Kingdom in 2024 due to high interest rates. However, it remains unclear how severe this could be. The Fed will aim to avoid the worst of a recession, reduce inflation, and gradually lower interest rates. This could have a negative effect on the gold price. A harder economic landing and a swift reversal of interest rate policy would be more supportive of gold.
In a long-term high-interest-rate environment, economic conditions could deteriorate quickly, leading to more defaults among heavily indebted institutions, similar to the mini-banking crisis earlier this year.
 
In times of extreme economic volatility, more investors will turn to safe-haven assets like gold. This, combined with the Fed needing to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates, could easily push gold to a new all-time high.
In practice, low interest rates mean that individuals and businesses can borrow and spend more easily since money yields little when kept in a savings account. Increased spending and business investments stimulate the economy, leading to higher demand.
 

Geopolitics

The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a major driver of the gold price. Additionally, China remains an ongoing concern. Despite several meetings, the trade war has continued for several years. Lastly, the BRICS countries are also working on moving away from the dollar and are considering launching a new gold-backed currency.
 
If this is implemented, it could have profound implications for gold, both due to its usual dollar denomination and the increased demand if a major gold-backed currency returns to the global stage in 2024.
 

Demand from central banks

2022 was also a record year for gold reserve purchases by central banks. So far, 2023 has shown a mixed picture, with some banks continuing to buy while others have sold. Overall, gold reserves have declined in 2023, but this has been skewed by Turkey, which has sold nearly 160 tons of its gold reserves this year due to exceptionally strong domestic demand and a partial ban on gold imports.
 
When excluding Turkey, central bank gold purchases remain positive. China has also continued buying gold in a long-running acquisition wave that began in 2022 as it distanced itself from the dollar. In times of economic uncertainty, central banks are likely to continue increasing their gold reserves.
If the gold-backed currencies of the BRICS nations materialize, it is likely that all participating countries would make significant gold purchases to support their national currencies, pushing gold prices higher.
 

Goldprice predictions 2024

In the table below, we have compiled several gold price forecasts for 2024. Most predictions are based on a prolonged period of high interest rates and a mild recession. When averaging all seven forecasts, the result is $2,155.14 per troy ounce, which would mark a new all-time high.
 

Analist / expert	Goldprice prediction of dollars
ABN AMRO	2.000
AG Thorson voor FX Empire	3.000
Natixis	1.920
UBS	2.250
BMI	1.850
Trade economy	2.016
Commerzbank	2.050

 
ABN AMRO lowered its gold price forecast for 2024 at the end of June, from $2,200 per troy ounce to $2,000 per troy ounce. The bank expects a recession in the fourth quarter and anticipates that interest rates will be cut in the first quarter of 2024. They still predict aggressive rate cuts in 2024 and currently expect 175 basis points of rate reductions throughout the year.
Additionally, ABN AMRO has upgraded its outlook on the U.S. dollar. They no longer expect a rate cut from the Fed this year and foresee fewer overall rate cuts in 2023-2024.
 
According to ABN AMRO, interest rate expectations (both real and nominal) and the outlook for the U.S. dollar are the main drivers of gold prices. The rationale behind adjusting their gold price forecast is that the beginning of the Fed's monetary policy easing is generally positive for gold prices. However, since the market has already anticipated this, it is already reflected in the gold price.
For this reason, ABN AMRO believes that the potential for further gold price increases against the U.S. dollar is limited from current levels.
 
However, more and more countries are expressing their desire to no longer be dependent on the U.S. dollar. The BRICS nations, for example, are exploring the possibility of introducing a new gold-backed currency. This could have a positive impact on the gold price.
In times of economic uncertainty, gold remains an attractive investment. During the last financial crisis, concerns arose about the stability of the euro, and today, there is growing uncertainty about the stability of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
During the last financial crisis, significant investments were made in gold, as people knew it could eventually be converted into another currency if the euro were to collapse. Additionally, central banks often increase their gold reserves during financial crises to strengthen their national currency in times of economic downturn.
 

Buying gold at The Silver Mountain

At The Silver Mountain, you can buy gold at the most competitive prices. We supply coins and bars from recognized producers. Additionally, our gold bars have Good Delivery status, making them easily tradable worldwide.
We also offer a buyback guarantee, meaning you can always sell your precious metals back to us easily, based on fixed formulas relative to the prevailing gold and silver prices. We always buy, regardless of the volume you sell or the current gold and silver prices.
 
Disclaimer: The Silver Mountain does not provide investment advice, and this article should not be considered as such. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.